Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 09 2023 05:58:11

ACUS01 KWNS 090558
SWODY1
SPC AC 090556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Wed Mar 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA...

....SUMMARY...
Strong storms -- a few possibly capable of producing marginally
severe hail -- are expected from central Texas east-northeastward to
parts of northern Mississippi/northwestern Alabama.

....Synopsis...
Relatively low-amplitude flow aloft is expected across most of the
U.S., as short-wave troughing shifts across the central U.S. and
eventually across the Mississippi Valley.  Farther west, an upper
low off the Pacific Northwest Coast is forecast to shift eastward
and eventually inland overnight.

At the surface, the main feature of interest with respect to
convective potential will be a weak baroclinic zone lying from Texas
to Mississippi/Alabama.  With time, as weak upper-level troughing
shifts eastward, weak frontal low development is forecast to begin
near the Mississippi Delta after dark, and then shift northeastward
to the southern Ohio/eastern Kentucky area late.  As this occurs,
the aforementioned baroclinic zone will move slowly southeastward in
the wake of the low, through the end of the period.

....Central Texas east/northeastward into portions of northern
Mississippi/northern Alabama...
A cluster of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley area during the day, on the
cool side of the surface front lying across this region.  With
generally weak CAPE, and a cool/stable boundary layer in place near
and north of the front, storms should remain largely if not entirely
sub-severe, with only a very low-end risk for marginal hail.

Later in the period, as the cold front begins advancing,
elevated/anafrontal storms are expected to develop from Texas to
southeastern Oklahoma/Arkansas, and shift eastward with time.  With
somewhat greater CAPE across this area, a few stronger storms may
producing marginally severe hail through the second half of the
period.

...Goss/Supinie.. 03/09/2023

$$

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