Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 09 2023 05:40:13 ACUS02 KWNS 090540 SWODY2 SPC AC 090538 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Wed Mar 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are most likely over parts of the Southeast, with hail possible in the strongest storms into southern Georgia and northern Florida. ....Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east/southeast from the Upper Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic on Friday, with low pressure over OH during the day. A secondary low is forecast to develop off the Atlantic Coast, resulting in strengthening northwesterly winds over the Mid Atlantic overnight. To the south, a front will slow as it moves into southern TX and along the Gulf Coast. Dewpoints in the 60s F will exist south of the front, combining with heating to produce 1000 J/kg MUCAPE from coastal MS/AL into southern GA and northern FL. This will occur beneath subtle height falls due to the wave to the north, and mid and high level westerlies will range from 50 to 80 kt. To the west, a strong upper trough will move east across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, as ample midlevel moisture remains over much of the West. However, little instability will be present for thunderstorms except for perhaps coastal central CA. ....Southern AL/Northern FL into southern GA... Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of eastern TX into GA and SC, along and just north of the cold front. The best combination of heating and instability is forecast over northern FL and southern GA, where deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt. The combination of daytime heating, long straight hodographs and sufficient instability will support a few cells capable of large hail and isolated damaging gusts. These storms will move quickly east/southeast during the afternoon, possibly as far east as Jacksonville FL by evening. ...Jewell.. 03/09/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .