Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 09 2023 00:58:44

ACUS01 KWNS 090058
SWODY1
SPC AC 090057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Wed Mar 08 2023

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong storms posing some risk for severe hail will continue
this evening and into tonight across parts of northwest Texas into
southern Oklahoma.

....Discussion...
A zone of elevated/locally robust thunderstorms is ongoing at this
time across parts of North Texas and into far southern Oklahoma,
within a zone of isentropic ascent atop a stable low-level airmass.
As a southerly low-level jet strengthens this evening, storms will
likely be maintained -- and within an environment featuring strong
directional shear atop the surface-based stable layer.

However, evening RAOBs from both OUN (Norman, OK) and FWD (Fort
Worth, TX)both reveal meager/skinny CAPE profiles, which should
limit the capability of storms to produce severe-caliber hail.
Still, 5% risk will be maintained to cover potential for near 1"
hail with a couple of the strongest updrafts.

...Goss.. 03/09/2023

$$

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