Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0260
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 23:17:11

ACUS11 KWNS 082317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082316=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-090045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CST Wed Mar 08 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northern TX and far southern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082316Z - 090045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms persist across parts of northern Texas and
far southern Oklahoma this afternoon. Some marginally severe hail
may occur with the stronger cells, but a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to redevelop along and just north the
850 mb stationary front across parts of north Texas. Per
mesoanalysis and an ACARS profile from KDAL, these storms are likely
rooted between 850 and 700 mb, and persistent warm advection in this
layer is responsible for the continued redevelopment. The storms are
in an environment with ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE and ~40 kts of effective
bulk shear with largely straight hodographs in the cloud-bearing
layer. This has resulted in a mix of left- and right-moving
supercells with occasional three-body scatter spikes on WSR-88D
radar.=20

Given the environment, a few marginally severe hail reports are
expected as these storms translate to the east and east-northeast
with time. Due to the sporadic nature of the expected hail
occurrence, a watch is not anticipated, but trends will be
monitored. Additional cells may to continue redeveloping along
generally the same axis as warm advection persists through the
evening.

...Supinie/Hart.. 03/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!93mN00ICzCo6srf50_in2i7j4UXVL0SONWIqbI6Vm8lcaJU5xp0oyAMoIZvWneuySfYP8wc0f=
N_vCPfOZH9liUKEIZ0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32560098 32780119 33120115 33630063 34169902 34319814
            34479726 34459664 34319629 34019597 33599564 33139565
            32939597 32769685 32629861 32549985 32560098=20


=3D =3D =3D
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