Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 19:32:40 ACUS01 KWNS 081932 SWODY1 SPC AC 081931 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Wed Mar 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... The development of a couple of strong storms posing some risk for severe hail remains possible, mainly this evening into tonight across parts of northwest Texas into southern Oklahoma. ....20Z Update... Downstream of a relatively low amplitude short wave trough advancing into the Great Basin, and forecast to progress across the Colorado Rockies vicinity by 12Z Thursday, warming centered around the 700 mb level is underway across the Texas South Plains into northwestern Texas. An associated increase in inhibition is expected to result in a gradual northward shift in the corridor of persistent convective development, generally across and east-northeast of the Red River vicinity through late evening. It does appear that an increase in forcing for ascent will contribute to intensifying convection and embedded thunderstorms, but it is not clear that thermodynamic profiles will support more than low potential for marginally severe hail, mainly across the Red River vicinity. ...Kerr.. 03/08/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023/ ....Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress eastward today across the western states, eventually reaching the central Rockies late tonight. Downstream of this perturbation, a broad zone of 40-50 kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over much of the southern Plains. A surface front extending from parts of west into central TX should move little today. A few elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well north of this front over portions of western north TX. Even though large-scale ascent remains nebulous, this activity may persist today as it spreads slowly eastward across north TX owing to weak low-level warm advection. With modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates present along/north of the front, around 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE should generally be available to support this elevated convection. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt should foster organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell or two. Indeed, a splitting supercell has already been observed with the convection in western north TX, before both updrafts subsequently weakened. Isolated severe hail appears to be the main threat through tonight with any elevated thunderstorms that can persist. A broad area of precipitation is ongoing across parts of the lower MS Valley into the Mid-South associated with a weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastern extent of the stalled surface front also extends northwest-southeast across MS. Even with robust diurnal heating expected southeast of the current showers/thunderstorms, poor lapse rates aloft and weak lift along the front should keep overall thunderstorm chances rather isolated. While a strong thunderstorm could occur this afternoon across parts of central MS, the overall severe threat still appears too conditional/isolated to add low severe probabilities for hail/wind. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .