Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0259
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 17:07:39

ACUS11 KWNS 081707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081707=20
TXZ000-081930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023

Areas affected...portions of north central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081707Z - 081930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A strong elevated thunderstorm is ongoing in north central
TX. Additional storms are possible in the next couple of hours, but
a WW is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm is ongoing in Stephens County at
1700z. This supercell has persisted in an environment characterized
by around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and effective bulk shear around 50
kts. The 12z FWD observed sounding and forecast RAP profiles near
KABI/DYS suggest the most-unstable parcel resides around 1 km AGL
with an effective inflow layer around 1-2.5 km AGL. Overlaying this
elevated inflow layer on the current KDYX VWP yields minimal
effective SRH. Thus, despite deep layer shear supportive of
sustained updrafts, inflow helicity remains rather marginal.
Radar-derived, storm-scale trends of a quasi-persistent reflectivity
structure and more transient mid-level rotation characteristics are
consistent with this environmental analysis.

Some additional convective development is anticipated in the western
portions of this MCD (additional convection initiation attempts are
currently underway near SNK). The thermodynamic and shear profiles
across the area are expected to remain somewhat steady for the next
few hours as the main 500 mb trough pivots slowly over the western
U.S. Thus, some gradual development of these cells is possible
during the next few hours, similar to the observed evolution of the
ongoing storm in Stephens County. Some hail is possible with these
elevated storms, but the threat is expected to remain marginal and a
WW is not anticipated in the short term. Some low-level warming
(e.g., around 700 mb) is possible later in the afternoon and evening
which may influence downstream severe hazard potential.

...Flournoy/Gleason.. 03/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Jxr3qCjsyilIXlRhyueJlfO5lUf0diL5tBlncclectrZY0pb_UccbQoHaxA0Ze4-kasG713-=
6V8qWZcqUnSVpsoeXo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31980054 31960135 32270178 32750155 33230076 33419980
            33519863 33469775 32969744 32609791 32339886 32189970
            31980054=20


=3D =3D =3D
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