Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 16:28:09 ACUS01 KWNS 081628 SWODY1 SPC AC 081626 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail may occur this afternoon through tonight across parts of west/north Texas into southern Oklahoma. ....Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress eastward today across the western states, eventually reaching the central Rockies late tonight. Downstream of this perturbation, a broad zone of 40-50 kt west-southwesterly mid-level flow will persist over much of the southern Plains. A surface front extending from parts of west into central TX should move little today. A few elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning well north of this front over portions of western north TX. Even though large-scale ascent remains nebulous, this activity may persist today as it spreads slowly eastward across north TX owing to weak low-level warm advection. With modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates present along/north of the front, around 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE should generally be available to support this elevated convection. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt should foster organized updrafts, including the potential for a supercell or two. Indeed, a splitting supercell has already been observed with the convection in western north TX, before both updrafts subsequently weakened. Isolated severe hail appears to be the main threat through tonight with any elevated thunderstorms that can persist. A broad area of precipitation is ongoing across parts of the lower MS Valley into the Mid-South associated with a weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastern extent of the stalled surface front also extends northwest-southeast across MS. Even with robust diurnal heating expected southeast of the current showers/thunderstorms, poor lapse rates aloft and weak lift along the front should keep overall thunderstorm chances rather isolated. While a strong thunderstorm could occur this afternoon across parts of central MS, the overall severe threat still appears too conditional/isolated to add low severe probabilities for hail/wind. ...Gleason/Flournoy.. 03/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .