Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 09:02:36

ACUS48 KWNS 080902
SWOD48
SPC AC 080901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

....DISCUSSION...
On Saturday/D4, a low-amplitude upper trough will move into the
southern Plains, resulting in gradual height falls and increasing
west to northwest flow aloft. At the surface, low pressure may form
over the TX Panhandle or western OK, with a dryline into central TX.
East of the low, a strong baroclinic zone is to become established
as a warm front slows over eastern OK into AR. Over the warm sector,
60s F dewpoints will be prevalent, resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg
MUCAPE. Subtle lift along the dryline Saturday afternoon may yield
isolated supercells from parts of OK into TX, but it is possible
that the moist boundary layer may be a bit cool/capped. In addition,
midlevel lapse rates are not forecast to be very steep at this time.
Further, models appear to focus the bulk of the precipitation along
the warm front where storms will be elevated. As such,
predictability is too low to introduce a 15% severe area.

The wave will progress east on Sunday/D5, with a broad region of
gradually falling heights and ample westerly mid and high-level flow
over the Southeast. Widespread precipitation is forecast over parts
of MS/AL/GA/TN, again in a zone of warm/moist advection. The zonal
flow regime with straight hodographs will again favor hail. The
cooler air mass will contain more low-level shear, but it is
possible that much of this shear will not be effective due to cool
temperatures.

For the Monday/D6 to Wednesday/D8 period, models indicate a large
upper trough amplification over the eastern CONUS as the
low-latitude wave merges with a northern stream trough, resulting in
cool conditions over land.

...Jewell.. 03/08/2023

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