Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 06:48:38

ACUS03 KWNS 080648
SWODY3
SPC AC 080647

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are most likely over parts of the Southeast, and
locally gusty winds will be possible.

....Synopsis...
A shortwave trough with closed low will move eastward across the
Midwest and Great Lakes, reaching the Mid Atlantic by Saturday
morning. At the surface, low pressure will be near Lake Erie much of
the day eventually weakening with a new low developing over the
Atlantic Ocean. Little instability will be present near the low,
with the 50+ dewpoints generally up to SC and GA. Convergence near
the low and cold front as well as shallow boundary-layer instability
may favor snow squalls from OH into western PA and NY.

For southern portions of the front, a plume of SBCAPE in excess of
500 J/kg is forecast from the FL Panhandle/southern AL into GA and
southern SC. Activity is likely to be ongoing near the front early
on Friday, and will likely persist as it moves across the region.
Long straight hodographs and weak instability may favor small hail,
but midlevel lapse rates will be poor.

Elsewhere, an upper trough over the West will bring widespread
precipitation to CA, and weak elevated instability will likely
result in convection capable of lightning with a couple hundred J/kg
MUCAPE possible into central portions of the state.

...Jewell.. 03/08/2023

$$

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