Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 06:47:05

ACUS02 KWNS 080647
SWODY2
SPC AC 080645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Wed Mar 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce severe hail from eastern Oklahoma and Texas
into northern Mississippi and Alabama through Thursday night.

....Synopsis...
A shortwave trough with tight midlevel temperature gradient and 100
kt jet streak will move east across the central Plains on Thursday,
deepening as it moves toward Lake MI by 12Z Friday.  Weak height
falls will occur over the Gulf Coast states, with primarily zonal
flow aloft.

At the surface, a weak surface low will move from OK into MO during
the day, with a cold front roughly from St. Louis to Dallas by 00Z.
This front will stall over southern TX and will stretch east across
LA, MS and AL by Friday morning. Given the progressive nature of the
upper wave, winds around 850 mb will strengthen then rapidly veer to
west/southwest from TX and OK across the lower MS valley. As a
result, the better moisture with 60+ F dewpoints will reside south
of I-40 in AR, with mid 60s F common toward the Gulf Coast.

....Arklatex eastward into MS/AL/LA/TN...
Scattered elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing from OK into the
Ozarks Thursday morning aided by 40 kt at 850 mb enhancing theta-e
advection and lift. Favorable effective shear may aid hail
production in the strongest cells. Some of this activity could
evolve into surface-based convection farther east into AR and MS
where moisture return will exist away from the cold front. Pockets
of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and deep-layer shear near 50 kt will support
hail as well.

Additional activity is likely along the cold front overnight from
northeast TX into LA/MS/AL with front-parallel winds aloft
supporting occasional hail or wind within a marginally unstable air
mass.

...Jewell.. 03/08/2023

$$

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