Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 05:49:36

ACUS01 KWNS 080549
SWODY1
SPC AC 080548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail will be possible this afternoon and evening
from parts of west Texas into southern Oklahoma.

....Southern Plains...
A similar regime will continue today across the southern Plains,
with west-southwesterly mid-level flow in place. At the surface, a
cold front will advance slowly southward across central Texas. An
enhancement of low-level flow over the post-frontal airmass will be
located from north-central Texas northward into southern Oklahoma.
As a subtle shortwave trough moves east-northeastward across the
southern Plains today, thunderstorm development will be possible
along the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow from west and
north Texas into southern Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings during
the afternoon along this corridor have MUCAPE generally between 1000
and 1500 J/kg with effective shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This
should be sufficient for marginally severe hail with the stronger
updrafts, with the threat persisting into the evening

...Broyles/Supinie.. 03/08/2023

$$

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