Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0258
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 03:30:34

ACUS11 KWNS 080330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080329=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-080500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northern TX and southern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080329Z - 080500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few cells capable of producing marginally-severe hail
have developed across western north Texas. A watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A few cells have developed across western north Texas,
near the location of a stationary front at 850 mb, per mesoanalysis.
The 00z OUN RAOB indicates these storms are likely elevated, rooted
around the 850 mb level. The environment is characterized by modest
buoyancy (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (~65 kts of
effective bulk shear) with a largely straight hodograph above the
stable layer. Given this environment, expect a few marginally-severe
hail reports out of the stronger cells as they translate to the
east-northeast with time. A watch is not anticipated at this time,
however trends will be monitored.

...Supinie/Thompson.. 03/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7abNBCO-jBrANtN6o-6azVg7jUkxVpsii8f630n-FVhNLEcpQr15OaN88P8oAi3eYBPziQqXm=
9SysKfLSTlsgKvjm2M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33730079 34309912 34559852 34689740 34679696 34499651
            34099620 33779644 33239759 32859928 32750111 32910148
            33250149 33410126 33730079=20


=3D =3D =3D
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