Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 03:25:49 AWUS01 KWNH 080325 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080923- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0089 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1024 PM EST Tue Mar 07 2023 Areas affected...Far Northern TX...Central to Northeast OK...Far Northwest AR...Far Southwest MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 080323Z - 080923Z SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to gradually expand in coverage overnight across portions of the southern Plains and the Ozark Plateau. Some occasional training of convective cells are expected, and this may result in a few instances of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows convection expanding in coverage in a southwest to northeast fashion across much of central to northeast OK as increasingly strong moisture convergence coupled with the nose of at least modest elevated instability focuses near and to the north of a wave of low pressure over the Red River Valley. This low center is focused along a quasi-stationary front and is also interacting with a southwest low-level jet of 20 to 30 kts. MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are in place along the general axis of convection with PWs across the region around 1.25 inches. Overall, the thermodynamic environment is not the greatest for producing high rainfall rates, but there is an active subtropical jet overhead and the latest CIRA-ALPW data shows a rather well-defined axis of subtropical moisture in the 700/300 mb layer advancing northeast across Mexico from the eastern Pacific Ocean. This moisture arriving across the Red River Valley may tend to facilitate somewhat greater rainfall efficiency with the evolving broken clusters of convection overnight. Some weak vort energy embedded within southwest flow aloft coupled with the available thermodynamics and close proximity of the front should sustain the convective threat well into the night with some further expansion of the activity. This will include areas of far northern TX in addition to central/northeast OK, and also areas downstream into far northwest AR and far southwest MO involving the Ozark Plateau. Expect some rainfall rates to reach 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger cells, and with some cell-training expected, a few localized swath of 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals with isolated heavier amounts will be possible. Can't rule out a few instances of flash flooding as a result, and especially if these heavier rains get into some of the more urbanized areas. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6BmQxDcplG-vFOlq7L2WDEJzcIyniJ5WMWbfAuKaMc1CDovQhV2Z1dMYS-fUT0vsRDuI= igQMnUs1s1qspZok7zmwxE0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36979427 36839396 36379379 35869435 35359508=20 34829593 34329688 33599837 33229932 33060029=20 33200083 33410090 33650058 34139973 34569889=20 35279782 36149649 36829518=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .