Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 08 2023 00:57:38 ACUS01 KWNS 080057 SWODY1 SPC AC 080055 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be possible tonight across parts of west and north Texas into Oklahoma. ....Southern Plains... Latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough embedded in west-southwest mid-level flow over the southern High Plains. This feature will continue to move east-northeastward across the southern and central Plains this evening. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located in north-central Texas extending northeastward into southeast Oklahoma. Low-level flow will steadily increase along and to the north of this front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this evening along the northern edge of enhanced low-level flow from West Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma. The 00Z sounding from Oklahoma City has MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and this instability should be maintained or could slightly increase toward late evening. The instability combined with effective shear near 50 knots should be enough for marginally severe hail with the stronger updrafts. The storms over West Texas into west-central Oklahoma will remain elevated, but a few storms further east could become near surface-based. For this reason, a marginal wind-damage threat is also expected to develop after midnight in eastern parts of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Broyles.. 03/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .