Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0257
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 07 2023 21:31:36

ACUS11 KWNS 072131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072130=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-072330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023

Areas affected...parts of north central Texas into southeastern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072130Z - 072330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong thunderstorm or two is possible through
5-7 PM CST, perhaps accompanied by relatively short-lived severe
weather potential, mainly in the form of hail.

DISCUSSION...Cold/potentially cold and stable boundary-layer air has
modified substantially across parts of north central Texas into
southeastern Oklahoma, with deepening boundary-layer moisture
focused along a persistent zone of convergence extending roughly
from the Mineral Wells through Ardmore and McAlester vicinities.=20
With destabilization (including CAPE now excess of 1000 J/kg) aided
by insolation, this appears to be supporting at least attempts at
deepening convective development.=20=20

Beneath a plume of capping elevated mixed-layer air emanating from
the Mexican Plateau, and the western flank of large-scale mid/upper
ridging centered near the Mississippi Valley, it seems unlikely that
low-level forcing will be able to substantively overcome the
mid/upper inhibition.  Even if an isolated thunderstorm or two is
able to initiate, it remains unclear if this activity will be
sustained.  However, deep-layer shear, particularly near and just
north of the Red River (where mid-level inhibition may be marginally
weaker than areas to the south), is strong and at least
conditionally supportive of supercells.

...Kerr/Grams.. 03/07/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_KvUrAXQNKM0KmqIcxLh_XsT8rXyozIZyKCkg3pWJcHwyCqa8LOh5MpRHPOH99xPtfCmzzKbo=
eSbU2q9HmTXyBsfMMs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33379789 34049745 34349684 35279567 34929530 33879640
            33389720 32979763 33049811 33379789=20


=3D =3D =3D
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