Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 07 2023 19:48:04

ACUS01 KWNS 071947
SWODY1
SPC AC 071946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Tue Mar 07 2023

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST/NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail will be possible, mainly tonight, across
portions of west/north Texas into southern Oklahoma.

....20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk extending from parts
of west/north TX into southern OK. Occasional severe hail still
appears possible across this area, mainly after 03Z and continuing
through early Wednesday morning. The potential for surface-based
thunderstorms along/near the front in north-central TX remains
rather uncertain/conditional. While surface temperatures have warmed
into mid/upper 70s across this area amid low/mid 60s dewpoints, a
lingering inversion centered between 850-700 mb will probably
continue to inhibit convective development this afternoon.

...Gleason.. 03/07/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2023/

....West/north TX into southern OK...
A surface front arcing from the Permian Basin through north-central
TX to the Ark-La-Miss should become quasi-stationary through peak
heating, and then resume gradually pushing south tonight. Along the
inflection point of this boundary in north-central to northeast TX,
where it intersects with an inverted surface trough extending north
into eastern OK, potential will exist for a few late afternoon to
early evening thunderstorms. Should this activity become sustained,
it would likely develop on and towards the cool side of the front
where adequate low-level convergence may overcome pronounced dryness
centered on 700-600 mb. More muted mid-level lapse rates relative to
west TX will likely marginalize any initial severe threat.

Greater elevated convective coverage is anticipated towards late
evening across west to north TX and southern OK as low-level
isentropic ascent moderately strengthens on the cool side of the
front, with a warm-sector EML capping areas to the south. Plentiful
effective bulk shear with straight-line mid to upper hodographs will
support a conditional threat for a few splitting cells. The steeper
mid-level lapse rate plume and moderate MUCAPE will probably be
confined to the far western portion of the risk area, emanating from
the Permian Basin vicinity, with weak elevated buoyancy elsewhere.
This will yield the possibility for isolated/sporadic occurrences of
severe hail tonight.

$$

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