Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 07 2023 12:53:31

ACUS01 KWNS 071253
SWODY1
SPC AC 071251

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2023

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WEST/NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe hail may occur tonight
across parts of western and northern Texas into southern/central
Oklahoma.

....West/North Texas and Southern/Central Oklahoma...
Cyclonic upper flow will persist across the western half of the
CONUS downstream of an upper low/trough centered along the West
coast, with a gradual strengthening of mid/high-level
southwesterlies across the southern Plains through tonight.
Low-level moisture will increase across much of Texas to the south
of a wavy roughly west/east-oriented front across north Texas into
far southeast Oklahoma. While mid-level capping will tend to curb
diurnal deep convective development, a few thunderstorms,
potentially strong or severe, cannot be ruled out near the boundary
across north Texas/far southern Oklahoma before sunset. However, the
most likely scenario will be for elevated thunderstorms to increase
in coverage this evening into the overnight as increasing isentropic
ascent influences development on the cool side of the boundary.
MUCAPE values as high as 1000-1500 J/kg in the presence of 45+ kt
effective shear could support some severe-caliber hailstones.

...Guyer/Leitman.. 03/07/2023

$$

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