Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 07 2023 08:51:31

ACUS48 KWNS 070851
SWOD48
SPC AC 070849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2023

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Given good run-to-run consistency, the ECMWF members are preferred
for this forecast.

Generally west/southwest flow aloft will prevail across the CONUS
during the Friday/D4 to Sunday/D6 period, with a shortwave trough
over the Northeast on Friday/D4. Low-level moisture return will
increase across the southern Plains on Saturday/D5 as heights
gradually fall in response to a low-amplitude wave moving in from
the Southwest. Winds aloft will increase with 40-50 kt midlevel
westerlies common across the southern states.

MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg is forecast over parts of TX and OK on
Saturday/D5 as pressures lower over the Plains. A surface low is
forecast to move across the Red River Valley, and proceed towards
the lower MS Valley into Sunday/D6. Dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s will be common on Sunday/D6 across the Gulf Coast States, and
the combination of sufficient instability and elongating hodographs
may end up favoring damaging hail storms. Midlevel lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km are forecast, further aiding hail potential. Given
the subtleness of the wave and likelihood of areas of
substantial/ongoing precipitation, will defer a possible risk area
to later updates.

...Jewell.. 03/07/2023

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