Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 07 2023 07:51:28 ACUS03 KWNS 070751 SWODY3 SPC AC 070750 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely over parts of the central U.S. but the severe threat will be low. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out centered over Arkansas from late Thursday afternoon into the night. ....Synopsis and Discussion... The upper ridge over the MS and OH Valleys will break down as a shortwave trough moves quickly east across the central Plains and into the Midwest. High pressure will remain entrenched over much of the East, with a surface ridge extending into the Gulf of Mexico. While a surface low will develop during the day from OK into MO, it will be rather weak. Boundary-layer moisture will generally reach the I-40 region from OK into AR, with lower 60s F dewpoints possible. Winds around 850 mb will veer quickly to west/southwesterly, further reducing moisture advection. As such, the strongest instability with MLCAPE over 500 J/kg will coexist with the higher dewpoints. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday from OK across the Ozarks and into the Lower OH and TN Valleys, while surface-based storms develop along the cold front from late afternoon into the night as it pushes south into TX, AR and northern MS. While deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt will be common across the region, weak instability will be the mitigating factor. A Marginal Risk cannot be ruled out in later outlooks as predictability increases. ...Jewell.. 03/07/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .