Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 07 2023 06:49:29

ACUS02 KWNS 070649
SWODY2
SPC AC 070647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Tue Mar 07 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday
evening from parts of western Texas into southern Oklahoma.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A broad upper trough will exist over the West, with a midlevel speed
max moving east across the Great Basin during the day and into CO
and NM by 12Z Thursday. To the east, upper ridging will exist from
the Upper Great Lakes into the MS Valley, with an upper low just
east of the Canadian Maritimes.

At the surface, high pressure will result in cool conditions over
much of the Plains and East, with only minimal theta-e advection
over the southern Plains Wednesday night as the upper wave
approaches the High Plains. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints will exist
from TX into LA and southern MS, with little northward advancement
through the period.

Lift for thunderstorms will be most likely north of the stalled
front, from western TX into OK. Forecast soundings reveal elevated
CAPE of around 1000 J/kg, with favorable effective shear. As such, a
few reports of hail will be possible during the late afternoon and
evening as 25 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow enhances warm advection
north of the front.

...Jewell.. 03/07/2023

$$

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