Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 06 2023 19:42:56

ACUS01 KWNS 061942
SWODY1
SPC AC 061941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2023

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the
U.S. into Tuesday.

....20Z Update...
Lightning with convection overspreading far southern Lower Michigan
appears to have diminished, as lapse rates in the 700-500 mb layer
have stabilized.  The potential for additional lightning producing
convection across the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity
seems rather low, as the somewhat better elevated moisture return
becomes cut off from the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent now
beginning to shift into and east/southeast of the Lake Erie
vicinity.  However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates does
appear to linger along an axis from near Lake Erie through western
Pennsylvania, where the risk for lightning producing convection may
not yet be completely negligible late this afternoon and evening.

...Kerr.. 03/06/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023/

....Discussion...
A confined swath of elevated thunderstorms may persist into the
early evening along the southern rim of the Great Lakes region ahead
of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving east from the Upper MS
Valley. Very isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, mainly
this afternoon, along the OR/northern CA coast into the northern
Central Valley amid a steep low to mid-level lapse environment
within a broad upper trough. Scant buoyancy will limit updraft
intensity in both regions and severe storms are not anticipated.

$$

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