Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 06 2023 17:09:26 ACUS02 KWNS 061709 SWODY2 SPC AC 061707 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may impact parts of northwestern Texas and southwestern into central Oklahoma Tuesday evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather--mainly in the form of hail. ....Synopsis... A number of closed mid-level circulations have and continue to evolve within the large-scale flow across the eastern Pacific through the western Atlantic. By Tuesday, this will include a couple of highs in the higher latitudes of the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific and the northeastern Canadian Arctic. In between, a broad weak low will encompass much of the western and central Canadian Provinces into the northwestern U.S., with the most notable embedded perturbation pivoting westward and southwestward across Yukon and British Columbia. A less prominent impulse is forecast to progress inland across parts of southwestern Oregon and northern California. The southern periphery of the broader-scale cyclonic flow will curve inland across southern California into the northern Great Plains, generally in phase with another branch of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude to subtropical eastern Pacific. A more subtle perturbation emanating from this latter regime, and others within a separate belt emerging from even lower latitudes, appear likely to cross the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau, and eventually round the crest of mid-level ridging maintained across the southern Great Plains into the Southeast. Farther downstream, models indicate that a significant mid-level low will dig offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, the leading edge of a substantive cold intrusion now underway to the lee of the northern Rockies is forecast to nose through much of the Southeast Tuesday through Tuesday night. Southward advancement through the lower Mississippi Valley, and adjacent portions of the lower southern Great Plains, may be slower. It does appear that low-level Gulf moisture return, above the shallow front across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ozark Plateau, will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support increasing thunderstorm development by Tuesday night. ....Southern Great Plains vicinity... Boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower/mid 60s+ F surface dew points likely will be present to the south of the surface frontal zone. However, it appears that areas roughly from the Texas South Plains and Red River southward may remain capped by warm layers in the lower/mid troposphere. Furthermore, the surface front is already nosing into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, and it is appearing increasingly probable that the shallow leading edge of the cold air will reach and remain entrenched to the north of the Texas South Plains/Red River vicinity through Tuesday/Tuesday night. It does still appear possible, though, that modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may contribute to sufficient elevated instability to support at least some risk for severe hail (vertical shear should be favorable), mainly in initial storm development in response to forcing associated with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection Tuesday evening. ...Kerr.. 03/06/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .