Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 06 2023 09:58:24 ACUS48 KWNS 060958 SWOD48 SPC AC 060956 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....D4/Thursday: Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region... Extended-range guidance has come into better agreement regarding the evolution of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move into the Central Plains on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop along/south of a front that will be draped somewhere across the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, with deep-layer flow/shear remaining sufficient for some organized storm potential. However, with multiple rounds of antecedent convection expected, and guidance generally showing the shortwave ejecting north of the warm sector, a combination of lingering predictability issues and potentially limited magnitude of severe threat preclude a 15% area at this time. ....D5/Friday: Texas into parts of the Southeast... A cold front is forecast to move through much of Texas into the Southeast on Friday, as a surface low deepens and moves northeastward across the Great Lakes region. A few strong storms could develop along the front Friday afternoon, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the boundary timing/position and magnitude of instability with eastward extent. ....D6/Saturday - D7/Sunday: Southern Plains into the Southeast... The 06/00Z ECMWF, GFS, and CMC have all trended toward a greater potential severe-thunderstorm threat next weekend. In general, these solutions show a surface low intensifying across the central High Plains on Saturday, and then propagating east-southeastward along the remnant front (from the previous system) across the southern Plains and eventually into the Southeast on Sunday. As this occurs, a notable EML overspreads seasonably rich low-level moisture, with favorable buoyancy and deep-layer shear supporting organized thunderstorm development along the remnant boundary and a trailing cold front. However, the above scenario represents a significant change from previous ECMWF/GFS/CMC deterministic runs, with considerable spread noted amongst global ensemble members. If extended-range guidance shows consistency with this scenario going forward, then severe probabilities will eventually be needed, but predictability remains too low to introduce any 15% areas with this outlook. ...Dean.. 03/06/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .