Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 06 2023 08:31:22 ACUS03 KWNS 060831 SWODY3 SPC AC 060830 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Mar 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night from southwest Texas into southeast Oklahoma. ....Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the interior Northwest/Great Basin toward the central/northern Rockies/Great Plains by Wednesday night, with a broad region of moderate southwesterly midlevel flow persisting ahead of this system across the southern Plains. A weak surface low may develop across southern High Plains, with a convectively reinforced surface boundary extending eastward from the surface low/trough into parts of north/central TX. ....Southern Plains... A similar convective regime to D2/Tuesday is expected on Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains, though potentially shifted somewhat southward due to the influence of antecedent convection on the front. Weakening elevated convection is expected to spread eastward out of OK/north TX into parts of AR on Wednesday morning, in conjunction with a veering low-level jet. Renewed storm development is possible Wednesday afternoon near the convectively reinforced boundary, with increasing storm coverage expected Wednesday night along/north of the boundary as a southerly low-level jet redevelops across the region. Moderate buoyancy and sufficient effective shear will support the potential for a few organized storms. Hail appears to be the most probable threat, given that most storms may be remain somewhat elevated, but localized strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out. Across southwest TX, storm coverage becomes more uncertain, but a conditional risk of hail will exist with any sustained deep convection, given the presence of stronger buoyancy and steep midlevel lapse rates. Storm development appears somewhat more probable compared to Tuesday, due to the potential influence of embedded vorticity maxima within the broader southwesterly midlevel jet, so the 5%/Marginal Risk has been extended southwestward to cover the severe hail threat. ...Dean.. 03/06/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .