Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 05 2023 19:53:36

FOUS30 KWBC 051953
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EST Sun Mar 05 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Mar 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected later
this afternoon and evening across the east-central Florida
Peninsula in an area with onshore flow, modest axis of
instability, and in the vicinity of a surface boundary. Recent
runs of the HRRR and other 12Z hi-res guidance still shows the
possibility for isolated intense rain rates within the
merging/colliding convective clusters. However, the isolated
nature and relatively dry conditions should keep any flooding
issues mostly nuisance with isolated instances of minor urban
flooding runoff. No risk area was defined with this update.

Taylor



Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023 - 12Z Tue Mar 07 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Taylor


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_9sGzDPwZU6SDzIO1MIsIITWj34HQpB3-4lOUfsKRTjK=
jSXvkJUfnMCcZcWhQjg1PYF9Av7iKawejUNQQ8S8mlXIRLU$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_9sGzDPwZU6SDzIO1MIsIITWj34HQpB3-4lOUfsKRTjK=
jSXvkJUfnMCcZcWhQjg1PYF9Av7iKawejUNQQ8S8999pBZY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_9sGzDPwZU6SDzIO1MIsIITWj34HQpB3-4lOUfsKRTjK=
jSXvkJUfnMCcZcWhQjg1PYF9Av7iKawejUNQQ8S8OSbHSgA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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