Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 05 2023 16:12:19

ACUS01 KWNS 051612
SWODY1
SPC AC 051610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday.

....IA to Upper MS Valley...
Small hail will be possible within the more vigorous elevated
thunderstorms that are expected to develop after sunset, but the
threat for severe hail appears negligible.

A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the MT/WY Rockies will move
east into the Upper Midwest through early morning. Downstream of
this wave, persistent low-level warm theta-e advection will
intensify after sunset across the Upper MS Valley. This will yield a
broadening plume of elevated convection this evening. Across the
southern part of the convective area, the most-unstable inflow is
anticipated but MUCAPE will remain below 1000 J/kg. Guidance does
depict greater-than-average spread for a D1 forecast over the degree
of effective bulk shear. Speed change with height appears most
pronounced within the mid to upper portion of the elevated buoyancy
profile, where thermodynamic sensitivities are seen across the suite
of convection-allowing/parameterized guidance. The most probable
scenario is for small hail to form in the stronger updrafts across
IA and spread across a portion of the Upper MS Valley before
subsiding overnight.

....Elsewhere...
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible in portions of central
FL, northern CA, and the Great Basin.

...Grams/Wendt.. 03/05/2023

$$

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