Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 05 2023 09:08:46

ACUS48 KWNS 050908
SWOD48
SPC AC 050907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Extended-range guidance continues to show considerable spread
regarding the evolution of the upper pattern across the CONUS by
mid/late week. For example, the GFS continues to show a slower and
more amplified upper trough moving eastward through the end of the
week, while the ECMWF has trended toward a faster and less amplified
solution as the trough moves across the central CONUS, before
notable amplification occurs over the eastern CONUS by the weekend.
Considerable spread continues to be noted in the various global
ensemble forecasts.

In general, multiple rounds of convection are expected near a
slow-moving frontal zone from the southern Plains into the lower MS
Valley on D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday, and potentially into
D6/Friday depending on the evolution of the upper trough. Deep-layer
shear may conditionally support organized storms near the front, and
some severe potential may eventually evolve from the southern Plains
into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. However, given the
aforementioned uncertainty in the upper pattern, and also
uncertainty related to the frontal position with time,
predictability remains too low to introduce any 15% areas with this
outlook.

...Dean.. 03/05/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.