Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 05 2023 08:23:11

FOUS30 KWBC 050823
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EST Sun Mar 05 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

The east-central Florida Peninsula has been monitored over the
last day given an uptick in the potential for localized heavy
rainfall with scattered storms developing in onshore flow along
and to the north of a frontal boundary draped over the Peninsula.
Some of the hi-res forecast model guidance QPF amounts hint at the
potential for some localized heavier totals or 2-3"+. Forecast
models also show the potential for CAPE as high as 1000-1500 J/kg
which would support a bit more vigorous thunderstorm development.
However, given the isolated nature of the heavier totals and
current dry conditions in the region, any flooding concerns would
likely be limited to a few instances of minor urban flooding.

Putnam



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5vOj-o8mu4p10l43gP3P6hJb1RPhmnOziDHDmjuz-_rW=
nXN2KcUSs8tjgncOM_-CcGVSBEBgQn6J0PCwwU69qUWsYv4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5vOj-o8mu4p10l43gP3P6hJb1RPhmnOziDHDmjuz-_rW=
nXN2KcUSs8tjgncOM_-CcGVSBEBgQn6J0PCwwU69BBvvohY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5vOj-o8mu4p10l43gP3P6hJb1RPhmnOziDHDmjuz-_rW=
nXN2KcUSs8tjgncOM_-CcGVSBEBgQn6J0PCwwU69gisIyUs$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.