Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 05 2023 08:05:15

ACUS03 KWNS 050805
SWODY3
SPC AC 050803

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms will be possible across the southern Plains
Tuesday night, but severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears
limited.

....Synopsis...
An broad upper trough is expected to remain in place across the
western/central CONUS on Tuesday. One embedded shortwave trough is
forecast to move from the Great Basin towards the northern High
Plains. Other smaller scale vorticity maxima emanating from the
subtropical Pacific may move across portions of the southern
Rockies/Plains through the period. At the surface, a cold front will
continue moving through parts of the Southeast, with the western
portion of the front expected to become nearly stationary somewhere
across central/north TX or southern OK.

....Southern Plains...
Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and favorable moisture transport
will support thunderstorm development near/north of the front, with
the greatest coverage expected Tuesday night as a modest low-level
jet develops across TX into southeast OK. Rather strong midlevel
flow will support sufficient effective shear for some storm
organization, but with modest midlevel lapse rates and a tendency
for convection to be somewhat elevated, the potential for severe
hail or wind appears limited at this time. A greater conditional
risk may develop over portions of southwest TX, where midlevel lapse
rates and buoyancy will be more favorable, but storm development in
this area is highly uncertain, due to weaker forcing compared to
areas farther northeast.

...Dean.. 03/05/2023

$$

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