Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 05 2023 06:32:17

ACUS02 KWNS 050632
SWODY2
SPC AC 050630

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Minimal severe-thunderstorm threat is expected on Monday.

....Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface low are
forecast to move from the Midwest/Great Lakes region toward the Mid
Atlantic on Monday/Monday night. A cold front will move through much
of the Great Plains/Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a
longwave upper trough will remain in place over much of the western
CONUS, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to move across
northern CA into the Great Basin by Tuesday morning. Southerly
low-level flow will result in continued moisture return into parts
of the southern Plains and Southeast.

Shallow convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible
near the OR and northern CA coast, in association with the
persistent upper trough. Elsewhere, elevated convection over the
Midwest is still expected to weaken prior to the beginning of the
forecast period, with thunderstorm potential expected to remain
generally limited on Monday. Farther south, gradually increasing
buoyancy may support shower development across parts of the Gulf
Coast and lower MS Valley regions, but thunderstorm potential
appears low due to weak midlevel lapse rates and limited large-scale
ascent.

...Dean.. 03/05/2023

$$

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