Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 05 2023 00:47:19

FOUS30 KWBC 050047
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
746 PM EST Sat Mar 04 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sun Mar 05 2023 - 12Z Sun Mar 05 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

The east-central Florida Peninsula is being monitored for locally
heavy rain in the vicinity of a west-east oriented frontal
boundary. To the immediate north of the frontal boundary will be
10 to 20+ kt of surface to 900 mb flow developing from 18Z Sunday
to 06Z Monday over the eastern Peninsula, beneath LFC-EL mean
westerly flow of roughly 25-35 kt. 12Z hires models are
forecasting 500-1500 J/kg of instability near the front and 1 to
1.5 inches of precipitable water in the pre-convective
environment. Added lift/divergence aloft is expected ahead of an
upper level shortwave with an associated speed max passing over
the region between 00-06Z Monday. If low level winds are stronger
than forecast as seen on Saturday morning's guidance, there could
be a few cells that develop and are slow moving with rain rates of
1 to 2+ in/hr and localized totals over 3-4 inches. The potential
for this scenario is fairly low and thus does not necessitate an
outlook on the ERO at this time but the 12Z HREF depicts
probabilities of 50+ percent for 3 inches and 30+ percent for 5
inches in the 24 hour period ending 12Z Monday over eastern
Florida.

Otto


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023 - 12Z Tue Mar 07 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Otto


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_u9bozbRPbdNtYQ3WRqMj-Gva10KLT1Qnxk87xW0lf82=
ZVMo4XL6SL_XIUn1NZpB23GBi4oGVoQsfiMxS-Nf26UJGhs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_u9bozbRPbdNtYQ3WRqMj-Gva10KLT1Qnxk87xW0lf82=
ZVMo4XL6SL_XIUn1NZpB23GBi4oGVoQsfiMxS-NfYBve7rk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_u9bozbRPbdNtYQ3WRqMj-Gva10KLT1Qnxk87xW0lf82=
ZVMo4XL6SL_XIUn1NZpB23GBi4oGVoQsfiMxS-NfbHl57wA$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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