Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 04 2023 19:09:12

ACUS01 KWNS 041909
SWODY1
SPC AC 041907

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday.

No changes were made to the previous outlook, with minimal
thunderstorm activity over northern Florida, and today and tonight
across parts of the northwestern CONUS. Weak instability will
preclude any severe risk.

...Jewell.. 03/04/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/

....North to central FL...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into early evening along and
just ahead of a frontolytic cold front. Relatively warm and rather
dry conditions from 700-500 mb sampled in the 12Z JAX/TBW soundings
will likely limit updraft vigor. In addition, veered southwesterly
low-level flow and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the
weakening front should further mitigate organized updrafts.

....Bay Area vicinity of Northern CA...
A low-topped squall forced along an impinging cold front may develop
across the northern CA coast into the Bay Area overnight. With
surface dew points only progged to peak in the low 40s, buoyancy
should remain scant with potential for very isolated thunderstorms
relegated north of an intense mid-level jet streak. Gusty winds
could accompany the frontal squall, but the threat for severe
thunderstorm damaging winds appears negligible.

$$

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