Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 04 2023 17:03:44

ACUS02 KWNS 041703
SWODY2
SPC AC 041702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A broad upper trough will exist over the West on Sunday with a
strong midlevel jet nosing east across the Rockies and toward the
northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift
out of the Northeast, with weak upper ridging over the Southeast.

At the surface, high pressure will cover much of the eastern CONUS
as low pressure develops over the central plains in anticipation of
the upper trough. A stalled front will stretch from FL into the
northern Gulf of Mexico, and this boundary will become a warm front
late in the period as weak southerly flow returns across TX and the
western Gulf of Mexico.

Weak instability will exist beneath the cold temperatures aloft over
coastal OR and northern CA, with a few weak thunderstorms expected
over this region. To the east, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE
will develop over the upper MS Valley overnight as the low-level jet
results in theta-e advection around 850 mb and lift is enhanced near
the left-entrance region of the upper jet. Weak instability is
likely to preclude any hail threat with this activity.

Elsewhere, weak convection may occur along the stalled front over
central FL where heating will lead to weak instability in a zone of
minimal surface convergence.

...Jewell.. 03/04/2023

$$

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