Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 04 2023 16:00:53

FOUS30 KWBC 041600
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM EST Sat Mar 04 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Mar 04 2023 - 12Z Sun Mar 05 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....16Z update...

A shortwave and related cold front was just upstream from northern
California at 15Z, with areas of heavy rain impacting locations in
the vicnity of Cape Mendocino with peak rates of at least 0.3
in/hr. After the cold front moves inland today, there will be a
break in precipitation intensity followed by lowering snow levels
down to 1000 feet and potentially down to sea level at times in
advance of a second shortwave/precipitation wave which will impact
similar areas of northern California tonight. Additional peak
precipitation beyond 16Z today through 12Z Sunday is expected to
be in the 1-2 inch range below 1500 ft ASL, but some of that will
be frozen. Any instances of flooding are expected to be too
isolated to warrant a Marginal Risk.

Otto

....previous discussion follows...

The Marginal Risk for coastal areas of southern Oregon and
northern California was removed due to concerns over the
realization of any appreciable heavy rainfall. While there could
be some totals approaching 1-3", these look to be highly localized
and will likely be spread out over a couple rounds of heavier
showers with a period of lighter rain in between. Moreover, snow
levels will be very low, potentially as low as 1000 feet, removing
concerns from additional runoff. Some hail and sleet may even mix
in along the coast, lowering the realization of higher rainfall
totals from currently forecast QPF in the model guidance. Any
impacts from localized heavier totals should be limited to minor
ponding.

Putnam



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Putnam


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023 - 12Z Tue Mar 07 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Putnam


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8eB87wwSEHYW1SRYf32r4euv2eG_joobhW7rdtQhjMNe=
B0p0fBwzVBvQxdTmMEHlJ5m2P7IlyDIeYP1AL71aTto1jfQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8eB87wwSEHYW1SRYf32r4euv2eG_joobhW7rdtQhjMNe=
B0p0fBwzVBvQxdTmMEHlJ5m2P7IlyDIeYP1AL71aQwZggNA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8eB87wwSEHYW1SRYf32r4euv2eG_joobhW7rdtQhjMNe=
B0p0fBwzVBvQxdTmMEHlJ5m2P7IlyDIeYP1AL71aKvLWWL0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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