Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 04 2023 08:59:40

ACUS48 KWNS 040859
SWOD48
SPC AC 040858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Extended-range guidance generally agrees that an upper-level trough
initially over the western CONUS early next week will translate
eastward across some portion of the Great Plains and eventually into
parts of the MS Valley and Southeast by next weekend. However,
models vary sharply regarding the timing and amplitude of this
trough. The 04/00Z GFS and (to some extent) UKMET depict a more
amplified and slow-moving trough across the western CONUS that only
begins to gradually shift eastward by the end of the week.
Meanwhile, the 04/00Z ECMWF and CMC depict a faster-moving trough
that moves into the central CONUS before undergoing substantial
amplification late in the week. Spread amongst various global
ensemble systems increases markedly by mid/late next week.

In general, guidance has trended somewhat weaker with the cold high
pressure forecast to build into parts of the central/eastern CONUS
after an early week frontal passage, showing greater potential for
low-level moisture return and destabilization across parts of the
southern Plains into the Southeast. This may support increasing
severe-thunderstorm potential by mid/late week as stronger
deep-layer flow/shear associated with the upper trough spreads
eastward. However, given the aforementioned predictability concerns,
15% severe probabilities for any particular location and time in the
extended range are not currently warranted.

...Dean.. 03/04/2023

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