Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 04 2023 08:11:40

ACUS03 KWNS 040811
SWODY3
SPC AC 040810

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Minimal severe-thunderstorm threat is expected on Monday.

....Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated weak surface low
are forecast to move from the Midwest/Great Lakes region toward the
Mid Atlantic from Monday into early Tuesday morning. A cold front
attendant to the surface low will move through much of the Great
Plains/Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper trough will
remain in place over much of the western CONUS. Persistent southerly
low-level flow will result in continued moisture return into parts
of the southern Plains and Southeast.

Shallow convection with sporadic lightning flashes will again be
possible near the northern CA coast, in association with the
persistent upper trough. Elsewhere, elevated convection expected to
develop during the D2/Sunday period over the Midwest should mostly
weaken prior to 12Z Monday. Some lightning potential cannot be ruled
out early D3/Monday with remnant convection across parts of the
Great Lakes, but with increasingly limited buoyancy, thunderstorm
probabilities at any one location appear less than 10% at this time.
Farther south, gradually increasing buoyancy may support shower
development across parts of the Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley
region, but thunderstorm potential will generally be limited by weak
midlevel lapse rates and negligible large-scale ascent.

...Dean.. 03/04/2023

$$

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