Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 04 2023 07:28:54

FOUS30 KWBC 040728
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 AM EST Sat Mar 04 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 04 2023 - 12Z Sun Mar 05 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

The Marginal Risk for coastal areas of southern Oregon and
northern California was removed due to concerns over the
realization of any appreciable heavy rainfall. While there could
be some totals approaching 1-3", these look to be highly localized
and will likely be spread out over a couple rounds of heavier
showers with a period of lighter rain in between. Moreover, snow
levels will be very low, potentially as low as 1000 feet, removing
concerns from additional runoff. Some hail and sleet may even mix
in along the coast, lowering the realization of higher rainfall
totals from currently forecast QPF in the model guidance. Any
impacts from localized heavier totals should be limited to minor
ponding.

Putnam



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Putnam


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Putnam


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_RyAnUge4_lIs1AuscZAH5FDa3TGahDioWofkgyrPtWm=
bSPr3oTHmAZJ2FiG96fsXGe_TXl46xTHqVvXkxM0rzxQaws$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_RyAnUge4_lIs1AuscZAH5FDa3TGahDioWofkgyrPtWm=
bSPr3oTHmAZJ2FiG96fsXGe_TXl46xTHqVvXkxM0Oed9UmE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_RyAnUge4_lIs1AuscZAH5FDa3TGahDioWofkgyrPtWm=
bSPr3oTHmAZJ2FiG96fsXGe_TXl46xTHqVvXkxM08K2cd28$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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