Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 04 2023 06:37:09

ACUS02 KWNS 040637
SWODY2
SPC AC 040635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be minimal on Sunday.

....Synopsis...
A longwave upper trough is forecast to cover much of the western and
central CONUS on Sunday, with an attendant mid/upper-level westerly
jet forecast to spread eastward into the central Great Plains. An
embedded low-amplitude shortwave trough and related surface low will
move from the central High Plains toward the upper Midwest through
the day into Sunday night. Low-level moisture will begin returning
to portions of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, though richer
moisture will remain displaced well south of the surface low and
cold front moving across the Central Plains/Midwest.

....Upper Midwest...
Surface-based buoyancy is expected to remain negligible across the
upper Midwest in advance of the cold front, but moistening in the
900-800 mb layer beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support the
development of MUCAPE in the 250-500 J/kg range (locally higher) by
Sunday evening across parts of IA into southern MN. Ascent attendant
to the approaching shortwave trough will support elevated
thunderstorm development, mainly near/after 00Z. Cold temperatures
aloft and modestly favorable effective shear will support a threat
for small hail with the strongest storms, but elevated buoyancy
appears too weak at this time to support severe-hail potential.

....Northern California...
Shallow convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes will again
be possible near the northern CA coast, and perhaps in the
Sacramento Valley region, within an environment characterized by
steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft.

...Dean.. 03/04/2023

$$

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