Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 04 2023 00:00:19

AWUS01 KWNH 040000
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-040315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0088
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EST Fri Mar 03 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the OH Valley and Adjacent Great Lakes
Region

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032358Z - 040315Z

Summary...The threat of excessive rainfall will linger into the
evening across portions of the Ohio Valley as rain associated with
an anomalously deep low pressure system brings additional rainfall
over areas with flash flood guidance that has already been lowered
significantly by recent rainfall.

Discussion...Locally heavy rainfall and rainfall rates approaching
0.5 inches per hour will be possible with active convection making
its way eastward across southern Ohio during the early evening
hours along and immediately ahead of an approaching front. The
expectation is that the convection should weaken with time as
drier air sweeps in from west at the mid-levels...which should
work against prolonged rainfall rates.

Farther upstream, though, additional rainfall near the center of
the unusually deep surface low and upper trough will spread over
the same area later this evening.  Flash flood guidance in
southern Indiana and southwest Ohio have lowered to closer to 0.7
inches per 3 hours. Rainfall rates should not be as high as
earlier in the day but may still lead to additional flooding over
areas soaked earlier in the day or prolong any on-going flooding.

Even though heavier precipitation rates are expected farther north
near a strengthening deformation zone...the concern there is for
winter weather and not for flash flooding.  That limited the
northern extent of the MPD in addition to higher Flash Flood
Guidance values.

Bann

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8YhIHdhid5f9duo7DfcPVdV1WPCzbzUdEUlXZCYps0y4GdmJTC86MM1c7UJbsd3lYuNz=
r8e0LEb__YhTHcPMMBoW0uI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40478482 40208277 39318124 38698125 38088177=20
            38428306 38678443 38808431 38988586 39768621=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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