Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 03 2023 16:26:26

AWUS01 KWNH 031626
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-032225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0087
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1126 AM EST Fri Mar 03 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Missouri, western/northern Kentucky,
Indiana, Ohio, and southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031625Z - 032225Z

Summary...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to
overspread the discussion area through 22Z.  0.5-1.5 inch/hr
rainfall rates (persisting over 3-5 hours) will continue to
promote flash flood impacts through the afternoon.

Discussion...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall continue to
persist downstream of a strong mid-level wave centered over
Missouri.  Widespred areas of 1-4 inch rainfall amounts have
occurred across a large part of the discussion area over the last
12 hours.  These rainfall amounts have lowered FFG thresholds to
below 0.5 inch/hr in many areas, while rainfall rates of 0.25-0.75
inch/hr continue to occur as of 1620Z.  These rainfall rates,
combined with sensitive hydrological conditions, have resulted in
widespread impacts, with many roads under water across
southeastern Missouri, western Kentucky, southern Indiana, and
southern Illinois.

The heavier rainfall remains tied to strong convergence on the
nose of a 70-kt low-level jet along a baroclinic zone oriented
roughly along the Ohio River.  Strong cold advection aloft was
also supporting destabilization near the Mississippi/Ohio River
confluence, resulting in deep, lightning-producing convection (and
locally heavy rain rates) in that area.  Rainfall will continue to
shift east-northeastward along the Ohio River Valley today while
resulting in areas of flash flood impacts.  As much as 3 inches of
rainfall can be expected through 22Z especially where deeper
convection occurs and training is evident.

As the vigorous Missouri mid-level wave shifts northeastward,
rainfall will also end from southwest to northeast.  The back edge
of the heavier rainfall currently resides across northeastern
Arkansas,and should reach the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence
around 19Z, spreading northeastward toward the Cincinnati area
around 22Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_3UH736WaYqZFZ5mw4zbwQR953Lk9wzckG2MS8xoNkU0fKnNyZNcZbCvAYgkr4QdCwPB=
r7W-Ir5GQOSbV8-_IYh1SEI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...LSX...
PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40768445 40648315 40048243 39208249 38438287=20
            37808403 37138672 36558852 36708999 37069038=20
            37739019 38089000 38868902 40048734 40688595=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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