Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0240
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 03 2023 05:06:59

ACUS11 KWNS 030506
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030506=20
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...much of Arkansas...northern Louisiana...and western
Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

Valid 030506Z - 030600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

SUMMARY...Local risk for damaging winds and a tornado or two
continue across WW 57.  With risk expected to continue -- and even
increase overnight, a new Tornado Watch will be issued as the
existing watch is set to expire at 03/06Z.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar continues to show a locally
vigorous/complex convective band moving eastward across western
Arkansas, the Arklatex, and southeastern Texas at this time.

The band continues to weaken across southeastern Texas, but farther
north, locally damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two remain
possible in the short term.

With time, as the upper system shifts across Texas and gradually
takes on a more negative tilt overnight, cyclogenesis in the
southwestern Arkansas area will continue, with a corresponding
increase in low-level theta-e advection, beneath gradually
strengthening flow aloft.  As such, severe/tornado risk is expected
to likewise increase, and last through the overnight hours and
through sunrise.  As such, with WW 57 set to expire at 03/06Z, a new
tornado watch will be issued within the next half hour or so.

...Goss.. 03/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-OHvQ7Xrh2dy0o3D1X0JshSul9mujpFvlYs3DhyWGwmQZ8GMWzf5uaeTe9gxf4RWRbILMgJNX=
glV1QeolnR1mWbtDqA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31549396 34239343 35149336 35959221 36099101 36029033
            35329016 32229057 31579155 31529278 31549396=20


=3D =3D =3D
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