Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0238 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 03 2023 03:18:28 ACUS11 KWNS 030318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030317=20 LAZ000-TXZ000-030515- Mesoscale Discussion 0238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0917 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Areas affected...portions of east TX and southwest LA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56...58... Valid 030317Z - 030515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56, 58 continues. SUMMARY...A severe line of thunderstorms continues to progress eastward across TX. Convective trends are being monitored for possible WW issuance downstream in portions of southwestern LA. DISCUSSION...The ongoing QLCS and attendant severe-weather threat continues to progress eastward through TX. This system has developed a broad, strong cold pool (around 10-13 F negative temperature perturbations observed at KILE/KGTU/KRYU) and produced damaging wind gusts and large hail in central/south TX. Some areas of stronger low-level rotation have been observed -- particularly as the line passed near KEWX/KGRK -- in association with localized cold-pool surges and/or embedded supercell structures. Low-level hodographs, derived from KEWX/KRGK VWPs, elongated rather quickly as the line approached; 0-1-km shear increased from around 20 to 30 kts with 0-1-km SRH around 400 J/kg at both sites. These favorable kinematics have helped support surface-based QLCS maintenance, and severe hazards, despite gradually increasing MLCIN. The MLCIN increase appears to be driven by increasing 850 mb temperatures, evident in RAP forecast profiles and supported by recent 00z radiosonde observations (e.g., LCH and vicinity). Some uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution during the next few hours. In the short term, a steadily strengthening low-level jet is expected to help offset larger MLCIN, supporting a continued severe threat in WW 55/56/58. Further severe weather production downstream in the delineated area is possible given increasingly favorable kinematics, but might be somewhat tempered if temperatures aloft continue to increase and storm coverage diminishes (as depicted in latest HRRR/WoFS guidance). Current radar observations of a surging cold pool and diminishing reflectivity structures support continued overall weakening of the system. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for a possible WW issuance downstream. ...Flournoy/Gleason.. 03/03/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5gehkQlzrMLID9H7oYpax5ShfkRkyaJ9xw2mD4WrX_fC4TmRwO55FaIcx_LjYpQ_dUfPFwrje= 3oasMsU_p5hksOe7ZU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 29829236 29609359 29359527 29389620 29659652 30269636 30819605 30959515 31019424 31129354 31279300 31319250 31179197 30779186 30169188 29829236=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .