Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0236
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 03 2023 01:10:30

ACUS11 KWNS 030110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030109=20
TXZ000-030315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56...

Valid 030109Z - 030315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for WW 56. A line of severe
thunderstorms, as well as a few semi-discrete cells on the southern
periphery, is advancing eastward and will pose a threat for damaging
winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado in the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms has consolidated along
the cold front in WW 56 and is advancing quickly eastward. 70+ mph
radial winds are currently sampled around 1 km AGL from KGRK,
supporting damaging severe wind gusts at the surface. Surface
objective analysis reveals dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s
ahead of the convection, yielding MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg
amidst 70-80 kt bulk shear. Some MLCIN is already present, which is
expected to increase during the next few hours due to warm advection
around 850 mb. This may temper the overall severe threat somewhat in
a few hours. Prior to that point though, low-level shear is expected
to steadily improve as a low-level jet strengthens. VWPs at
KGRK/KEWX currently depict 20+ kts of 0-1-km shear, supporting the
development of locally stronger, quasi-supercellular structures
within the line and associated hazards. As such, the threat
continues across WW 56 for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
perhaps a tornado or two for the next couple of hours. Convective
trends will continue to be monitored for possible WW issuance
downstream.

...Flournoy.. 03/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7OiLqRwOob5GgcDNiqH8CqXu_VPpEK02rRmHYVPi3C4VnGwu-P0Ux_j9iASXmpIKfyK1fVmVO=
Zy4gB2djf4fP5axPnw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29799834 30159807 30409747 30469692 30409645 30099607
            29619633 29179700 29059757 29219838 29799834=20


=3D =3D =3D
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