Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0235
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 03 2023 00:55:26

ACUS11 KWNS 030055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030054=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

Valid 030054Z - 030230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe/isolated tornado potential continues locally,
and will increase later on tonight.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that isolated small/rotating
storms have diminished in coverage to some degree over the past
hour, with the strongest storm at this time approaching the
northwestern corner of the watch from southeastern Oklahoma.=20
Farther south toward Texarkana and Shreveport, earlier
small/rotating cells have decreased in both coverage and intensity,
and this is resulting in an overall lull in ongoing severe weather.

However, local severe risk lingers across the area, and is forecast
to increase substantially with time, particularly toward/after
midnight as the main upper system -- currently crossing the
southeastern corner of New Mexico -- progresses across Texas and
gradually assumes negative tilt with time.  This increase in ascent
-- reflected by anticipated surface cyclogenesis over the
northeastern Texas/southeastern Oklahoma vicinity -- will result in
an increasingly favorable overall environment for significant severe
storms.

...Goss.. 03/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6L_Dj_gODYlgJAw96Ptc7lHrRZgNlei_MJ481xspC2sZDlLe3UfG3O6bXjuWvELYn_nnNJlU-=
kOV7xwn5cRjZzkDjB4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   32839328 33019390 33699447 34759452 34859355 34659135
            34139172 33169240 32839328=20


=3D =3D =3D
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