Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0234
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 03 2023 00:14:58

ACUS11 KWNS 030014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030014=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...northern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030014Z - 030215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage across northern AR
during the next few hours. Some of these elevated storms may contain
large hail, but the threat is expected to remain relatively limited.
WW issuance is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms are ongoing south of a stationary
front in portions of southeast OK and the ArkLaTex region. Large
hail and a couple of tornadoes have been reported with these storms
(see WW 55 and MCD 232 for more information). Convection in these
areas is expected to continue moving toward the stationary front --
currently draped east-to-west through central AR -- and into
northern AR during the next few hours.

Potential surface-based buoyancy dwindles quickly to the north of
the stationary front. Current mesoanalysis indicates a strongly
capped environment there but some MUCAPE aloft (around 500 J/kg)
originating around 0.5-1 km AGL. Forecast soundings indicate that
maximum in MUCAPE may be realized in the next couple of hours and
then decrease thereafter as convective overturning stabilizes the
tropospheric profile. Effective bulk shear around 40-45 kts along
with moist inflow may support locally large hail production in the
strongest, most persistent updrafts moving into this region (e.g.,
the supercell currently located in McCurtain County). However, these
instances are expected to be rather brief due to gradually dwindling
MUCAPE. These storm-scale trends are supported by latest HRRR and
WoFS guidance indicating a relatively low threat for large hail
north of the stationary front. As such, WW issuance is unlikely at
this time.

...Flournoy/Gleason.. 03/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6HksTXz3MLIiB7OQJ5OPByt06OPjqEW1YsEY42OuyuagdQYxMNq4z1P2BCcobnZT0xWc1njMP=
3yc-k8nIPLg2KolGzQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   36479236 36369149 35969114 35579119 35289140 35119203
            35089287 35199383 35329449 35719479 36179432 36479236=20


=3D =3D =3D
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