Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 03 2023 00:06:14 AWUS01 KWNH 030006 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030603- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 705 PM EST Thu Mar 02 2023 Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma, Ark-La-Tex into northern Arkansas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 030003Z - 030603Z Summary...Multiple rounds of convection are expected across much of the discussion area tonight. Flash flooding is likely - especially where localized training of heavier downpours can materialize. Discussion...Ongoing storms across eastern Oklahoma and central Texas have evolved into a couple clusters/MCSs. Activity currently across north Texas has picked up forward speed due to upscale growth, although a few areas of heavier rainfall ahead of the linear MCS has prolonged heavier rainfall and boosted rainfall rates into the 1-1.5 inch/hr range especially northwest of Denton. An additional cluster of cells across eastern Oklahoma has exhibited less of a forward-propagating component of motion, and rain rates have occasionally peaked above 2 inches per hour at times. Recent trends suggest that this activity is still producing 1-2 inch/hr rainfall rates at times while residing along/just north of a warn front across the Ark-La-Tex region.=20 Storm total precip amounts of 4+ inches are still expected in localized areas of southeastern Oklahoma, although the heavier precip should end from west to east as the line across north Texas moves through, clearing that area by around 04Z or so. Concern remains that at least a couple of rounds of heavier rainfall will materialize from southeastern Oklahoma into north-central Arkansas tonight through 06Z. Models/CAMs and observations suggest that complicated interaction between the two MCSs should unfold across western Arkansas that will occasionally result in rain rates approaching or exceeding 2 inches/hr at times. The most likely location for the heavier rainfall rates will extend along and either side of an axis from Mount Ida to Batesville. Widespread 2-4 inch rainfall totals are expected, and locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out. The focus of heavier precipitation is generally expected to translate eastward in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet tonight. That jet axis extends from Paris south to Houston, TX currently, and should translate eastward, reaching an axis from Monroe, LA to Clinton, AR by 06Z while strengthening to 50-60 knots. Moist, buoyant warm sector air and convergence on the nose of the low-level jet will continue to fuel convection and efficient rainfall rates. Lastly, FFG thresholds are generally in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range across Arkansas and should be eclipsed especially where convective training is observed. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6SeZXUtfB5jR0QqTNj3Gm2fWzdasIwZnVuJ0Aagi8GmQ0YVD3vxCp9XDTryDdo76rCQe= -fsxriHh2V7QYlkOG1MfO_Q$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36639245 36609108 35969059 35089086 34059243=20 33069486 33399603 34589663 35159595 36169430=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .