Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0232
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 23:10:56

ACUS11 KWNS 022310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022310=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma...southern
Arkansas...northern Louisiana and northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...

Valid 022310Z - 030115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather, including tornadoes,
continues across watch 55, and a new Tornado Watch will also likely
be needed farther east across southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana by 01z.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar at 23z shows supercell thunderstorms,
occasionally exhibiting low-level rotation along the Red River west
of Hugo, OK and also across far northeast TX east of Longview. A
tornado was recently reported with an earlier storm in Hopkins
County, TX.  These severe storms were located near and just south of
an east-west surface boundary that extended from north of the DFW
Metroplex across southern Arkansas.

Latest surface mesoanalysis and recent KSHV VAD data show a very
favorable kinematic environment for supercells, with ample
deep-layer shear in excess of 65 kts, and 0-3 km SRH of 400-500
m2/s2. Low-level flow will continue to strengthen and back as
intensifying surface low pressure moves northeast across east TX
this evening, further supporting a supercell threat with all severe
hazards possible, including the risk for a strong tornado.

Latest observational trends and short-term hi-res guidance suggests
that a new Tornado Watch will likely be needed prior to 00z.

...Bunting/Gleason.. 03/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_gVMjmAlQdTJDoha6m0L-EWauAkRCgf-uKxnAKIOdmWhUnioEFY0iXnl3W5xSfo4xRVbLLaIb=
D7k_d3U8uA_FhEAxY8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32469358 32259439 32419524 32769555 33439601 33889603
            34259523 34419402 34489241 34539169 34289119 33659059
            32889104 32579257 32469358=20


=3D =3D =3D
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