Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0231
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 22:51:58

ACUS11 KWNS 022251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022251=20
TXZ000-022345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of south TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 022251Z - 022345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are developing southward along a cold
front into portions of south TX. These storms may pose a threat for
very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado as they
progress eastward this afternoon and evening. A southern WW
extension and downstream WW issuance may be necessary soon.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is developing
southward along a cold front through central TX. Damaging wind gusts
and large (1-2 inch) hail are expected to be the primary threats
with these storms, as referenced in WW 54 and MCD 230, before they
move into an environment more supportive of tornado production in WW
55.

Further south, strong frontal convection has developed in Edwards
County, with additional pre-frontal convection initiation attempts
evident to the southeast in Edwards and Kinney counties. These
updrafts are forming in a region characterized by a kinematic
profile supportive of sustained severe storms (0-3-km SRH of 200+
J/kg). Some MLCIN remains, as supported by 23z RAP profiles and a
dearth of boundary-layer convective rolls. However, the local
environment is expected to steadily improve as these storms
propagate eastward. This is reflected in latest high-resolution
model guidance depicting gradual storm intensification in this
region during the next couple of hours. These storms will pose a
threat for large, damaging hail, strong wind gusts, and perhaps a
tornado or two, and a downstream WW is likely in the short term.

...Flournoy/Gleason.. 03/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6vkXK-01RSCNr87KXI1hemtuwS329zGqo5s-5krBu6CjKaz2ttI13hoORsa4q0sHUdV8eoYMg=
g8xmAk1qqmTARtDiJE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30249995 30809951 31039871 30849787 30199734 29099774
            28659883 28989974 29710017 30249995=20


=3D =3D =3D
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