Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 19:57:25 ACUS01 KWNS 021957 SWODY1 SPC AC 021955 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail to the size of baseballs or larger, significant thunderstorm gusts to 75 mph, and a couple of strong tornadoes are likely from north Texas into the ArkLaTex this afternoon through tonight. ....20Z Update... ....Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South... A strong shortwave trough continues to progress into the southern High Plains, with ascent attendant to this wave already contributing to thunderstorm development over southwest TX. This area was addressed in recently issued MCD #228, which mentioned that damaging hail and wind will be possible with these. A tornado could occur along the stationary front, which extents east-northeastward from a low centered east of BGS. Recent 18Z FWD showed substantial capping, but modifying the sounding for current conditions lessens the convective inhibition considerably. This modified sounding validates the current mesoanalysis, which suggests convective inhibition has eroded for area of north and central TX south of the Metroplex. A few surface-based storms are possible in this region, where wind profiles support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. Upscale growth into an expansive convective line is still anticipated later this evening into tonight as the upper wave continues eastward into the increasingly moist and buoyant air mass over north/central/east TX. Primary threat within this line is damaging wind gusts, some of which could exceed 75 mph. Large hail also remains possible, particularly with early afternoon development and as a result of updraft intensification as the line mergers with any preceding cells. Line-embedded QLCS tornadoes also remain possible. ...Mosier.. 03/02/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Thu Mar 02 2023/ ....Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will move over southwest TX later this afternoon, and then eject northeastward toward AR by the end of the period. Substantial surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough and 110+ kt midlevel jet streak, from north central TX later this afternoon to western/northern AR overnight. A reservoir of 65-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints is present from central/east TX into LA/MS as of late morning, and continued northward advection of moisture is expected through this afternoon into tonight. The north edge of the surface warm sector is not expected to move much to the north through this evening, with a front remaining quasi-stationary from north TX to southern AR. A remnant outflow boundary will tend to slowly become more diffuse through this afternoon across the DFW area. The approach of the midlevel trough, mass response to cyclogenesis, and surface heating in cloud breaks all suggest that thunderstorm development is probable by early-mid afternoon across central TX and western north TX, with storms spreading east-northeastward into the DFW area, northeast TX and extreme southeast OK through late evening. The initial storms will likely be clusters of supercells capable of producing very large hail and swaths of damaging winds as storms grow upscale into a line along the surging cold front from central into northeast TX this evening (some of which could produce significant gusts. Forecast hodographs also suggest some potential for tornadoes, including a strong tornado or two, though the most favorable wind profiles will correspond to tonight when storm mode will likely be more linear. The compact nature of the jet structure suggests that the stronger/deeper forcing for ascent will travel along the path of cyclogenesis, from far northeast TX/southeast OK into AR tonight. South of this area, ascent will be weaker and relatively warm temperature profiles aloft suggest that storm development is more questionable with southward and eastward extent across LA/MS overnight. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .