Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0228
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 02 2023 19:02:22

ACUS11 KWNS 021902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021901=20
TXZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of west-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021901Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are likely to develop ahead of the surface
low and extending southward along a dryline and approaching cold
front. Damaging hail and wind will be possible. A tornado could
occur along the stationary/warm front.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating persists ahead of the surface low and
dryline, with CU fields clearly indicating an uncapped air mass. A
storm has already formed in Glasscock and Reagan Counties along the
dryline.=20

Southeasterly winds are supporting the advection of moisture, and
MLCAPE will continue to increase. Further, cooling aloft will
overspread the area, steepening midlevel lapse rates. Strong
deep-layer shear will favor long-lived, forward-tilting hail storms.
Damaging outflow winds will also be possible, especially with any
storms that ride along the stationary/warm front extending
east/northeast from the low. Here, a tornado or two will also be
possible as low-level shear and lift are maximized. This may also
become a favored corridor for damaging winds.

...Jewell/Thompson.. 03/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_2CoN4CfQ0MBUbq5KWnJKbqqlmE8bktXTpec0IEXP76f1C3xySGJSDxNL7t9NVfrFuco9pH5J=
nUBSQeTTI3h5C09COk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31189896 30609920 30299958 30370094 30600112 31360093
            32750046 33120031 33379988 33379916 33299895 32969880
            32199879 31629885 31189896=20


=3D =3D =3D
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